Here are those rankings:
#2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 group game rank 2017 Team
37.500000 37.500000 46.875000 37.500000 43.750000 1 1 1 43.750000 Villanova
NAN NAN NAN NAN NAN 1 1 16 NAN MSM/NO
29.687500 29.687500 42.187500 12.500000 25.000000 1 2 8 25.000000 Wisconsin
-20.312500 -20.312500 -17.187500 7.812500 18.750000 1 2 9 18.750000 Virginia Tech
34.375000 34.375000 40.625000 29.687500 18.750000 1 3 5 18.750000 Virginia
-21.875000 -21.875000 6.250000 28.125000 37.500000 1 3 12 37.500000 UNC Wilmington
46.875000 46.875000 -1.562500 7.812500 25.000000 1 4 4 25.000000 Florida
6.250000 4.687500 3.125000 18.750000 31.250000 1 4 13 31.250000 ETSU
21.875000 26.562500 32.812500 31.250000 40.625000 1 5 6 40.625000 SMU
NAN NAN NAN NAN NAN 1 5 11 NAN PROV/USC
20.312500 20.312500 23.437500 17.187500 28.125000 1 6 3 28.125000 Baylor
26.562500 26.562500 20.312500 20.312500 35.937500 1 6 14 35.937500 New Mexico St
-9.375000 -9.375000 1.562500 25.000000 18.750000 1 7 7 18.750000 South Carolina
3.125000 3.125000 -9.375000 10.937500 10.937500 1 7 10 10.937500 Marquette
28.125000 28.125000 40.625000 20.312500 29.687500 1 8 2 29.687500 Duke
-14.062500 -14.062500 -14.062500 -20.312500 12.500000 1 8 15 12.500000 Troy
34.375000 34.375000 46.875000 29.687500 48.437500 2 1 1 48.437500 Gonzaga
10.937500 9.375000 20.312500 29.687500 3.125000 2 1 16 3.125000 S Dakota St
-7.812500 -7.812500 -3.125000 12.500000 18.750000 2 2 8 18.750000 Northwestern
-1.562500 -1.562500 10.937500 9.375000 6.250000 2 2 9 6.250000 Vanderbilt
-3.125000 -3.125000 37.500000 15.625000 25.000000 2 3 5 25.000000 Notre Dame
18.750000 18.750000 3.125000 25.000000 26.562500 2 3 12 26.562500 Princeton
1.562500 1.562500 21.875000 28.125000 28.125000 2 4 4 28.125000 West Virginia
3.125000 3.125000 6.250000 6.250000 28.125000 2 4 13 28.125000 Bucknell
3.125000 3.125000 32.812500 26.562500 25.000000 2 5 6 25.000000 Maryland
14.062500 14.062500 12.500000 34.375000 12.500000 2 5 11 12.500000 Xavier
10.937500 12.500000 1.562500 9.375000 26.562500 2 6 3 26.562500 Florida St
14.062500 14.062500 17.187500 10.937500 29.687500 2 6 14 29.687500 FL Gulf Coast
18.750000 17.187500 17.187500 34.375000 37.500000 2 7 7 37.500000 St Mary's CA
28.125000 28.125000 26.562500 23.437500 28.125000 2 7 10 28.125000 VA Commonwealth
40.625000 40.625000 43.750000 26.562500 40.625000 2 8 2 40.625000 Arizona
1.562500 0.000000 -21.875000 3.125000 20.312500 2 8 15 20.312500 North Dakota
23.437500 23.437500 28.125000 40.625000 37.500000 3 1 1 37.500000 Kansas
NAN NAN NAN NAN NAN 3 1 16 NAN NCC/UCD
1.562500 1.562500 18.750000 28.125000 15.625000 3 2 8 15.625000 Miami FL
28.125000 28.125000 18.750000 35.937500 7.812500 3 2 9 7.812500 Michigan St
29.687500 29.687500 26.562500 15.625000 20.312500 3 3 5 20.312500 Iowa St
-3.125000 -3.125000 -20.312500 9.375000 34.375000 3 3 12 34.375000 Nevada
-3.125000 -3.125000 14.062500 29.687500 28.125000 3 4 4 28.125000 Purdue
18.750000 17.187500 9.375000 12.500000 37.500000 3 4 13 37.500000 Vermont
29.687500 29.687500 -7.812500 6.250000 25.000000 3 5 6 25.000000 Creighton
-6.250000 -6.250000 20.312500 3.125000 23.437500 3 5 11 23.437500 Rhode Island
21.875000 21.875000 25.000000 34.375000 37.500000 3 6 3 37.500000 Oregon
18.750000 17.187500 26.562500 18.750000 15.625000 3 6 14 15.625000 Iona
26.562500 26.562500 0.000000 15.625000 20.312500 3 7 7 20.312500 Michigan
14.062500 14.062500 7.812500 -12.500000 12.500000 3 7 10 12.500000 Oklahoma St
37.500000 37.500000 25.000000 23.437500 25.000000 3 8 2 25.000000 Louisville
-17.187500 -17.187500 -10.937500 -23.437500 9.375000 3 8 15 9.375000 Jacksonville St
21.875000 21.875000 20.312500 34.375000 31.250000 4 1 1 31.250000 North Carolina
7.812500 7.812500 15.625000 6.250000 18.750000 4 1 16 18.750000 TX Southern
17.187500 15.625000 28.125000 0.000000 25.000000 4 2 8 25.000000 Arkansas
0.000000 0.000000 1.562500 26.562500 15.625000 4 2 9 15.625000 Seton Hall
12.500000 18.750000 4.687500 -23.437500 23.437500 4 3 5 23.437500 Minnesota
NAN 23.437500 3.125000 23.437500 40.625000 4 3 12 40.625000 MTSU
-4.687500 -4.687500 18.750000 17.187500 23.437500 4 4 4 23.437500 Butler
10.937500 10.937500 9.375000 21.875000 31.250000 4 4 13 31.250000 Winthrop
32.812500 32.812500 18.750000 18.750000 37.500000 4 5 6 37.500000 Cincinnati
NAN NAN NAN NAN NAN 4 5 11 NAN KSU/WAKE
28.125000 28.125000 10.937500 -3.125000 39.062500 4 6 3 39.062500 UCLA
0.000000 0.000000 17.187500 9.375000 14.062500 4 6 14 14.062500 Kent
20.312500 20.312500 26.562500 28.125000 26.562500 4 7 7 26.562500 Dayton
53.125000 53.125000 37.500000 25.000000 40.625000 4 7 10 40.625000 Wichita St
21.875000 20.312500 53.125000 26.562500 37.500000 4 8 2 37.500000 Kentucky
-18.750000 -18.750000 -6.250000 -18.750000 21.875000 4 8 15 21.875000 N Kentucky
12.500000 12.500000 -3.125000 1.562500 10.937500 5 1 11 10.937500 Kansas St
1.562500 1.562500 -9.375000 -14.062500 9.375000 5 1 11 9.375000 Wake Forest
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -7.812500 6.250000 5 2 16 6.250000 Mt St Mary's
-6.250000 -6.250000 -10.937500 -15.625000 14.062500 5 2 16 14.062500 New Orleans
18.750000 18.750000 17.187500 20.312500 12.500000 5 3 11 12.500000 Providence
-15.625000 -15.625000 -12.500000 14.062500 23.437500 5 3 11 23.437500 USC
35.937500 35.937500 26.562500 -9.375000 26.562500 5 4 16 26.562500 NC Central
-20.312500 -20.312500 28.125000 -12.500000 15.625000 5 4 16 15.625000 UC Davis
That probably won't be formatted like garbage. The NaNs here are for the games that have multiple options, and as such don't have a name in the score data. I don't think any of those actually matter, as those teams aren't very good, and I don't have them advancing at all. I'm also pulling in my calculated ranks for the teams from previous years, which I only really used for the ties (which I don't think had to go back further than two years) and also to get a "how good is this team, really" feel. That's what led me to accept a larger than expected share of "upsets," defined as when the published lower-rank team beats a published higher-rank team.
My bracket is then:
I apparently didn't put in a score. 96-82, using a factor of 2.2 on the rank values to put it in the right range. |
Gonzaga is the highest ranked team in my calculations, but I went with Villanova because they've been more consistently good. I'm not 100% sure of that, but for something I only care enough about to think about like two hours a year, it's good enough.
I actually clicked through to make the "Heart of the Cards" bracket as well, which uses the calculated ranks straight, with no fudging based on the previous years:
106-89, using the same factor as above. |
This one has a lot more "upsets", and I intentionally took Wichita State out of my bracket early, because I'm still grumpy about two years ago.
I did download the 538 numbers, but I haven't sat down to turn that into a bracket. I wonder if Barack Obama is going to release one, since I don't care about the fascist asshole who replaced him.
No comments:
Post a Comment