"Are they murdering a car?"
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| Nope. They murdered a house. |
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| Nope. The two asshole birds you can't see in this image were tapping on my window. |
So, statistics results.
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| Ok, that West Virginia loss is going to hit the later rounds. |
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| As is Purdue. Not as bad as Michigan State, obviously. |
Let's look at the comparison table:
| #Bracket | N_R1 | PP_R1 | Nwrong_R1 | P_R1 |
| Mine | 32 | 1 | 6 | 26 |
| Heart-of-the-cards | 32 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| Julie | 32 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| BHO | 32 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 538 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| Rank | 32 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
The columns are the bracket identifier, the number of games in the round, the points per correct selection in the round, the number wrong, and the total points. The brackets are mine above, the "Heart of the Cards" bracket taken by simply selecting teams based on the 2016 ranking I calculated, Julie's bracket, President Obama's, the 538 bracket taken by assuming constant composite rankings from their pre-tournament predictions, and a dummy bracket constructed by selecting teams based solely on their "sport rank" thing. That's actually working out a lot better than I expected. I was correct in shaking up the straight HotC numbers with a bit of historical data. Looking at the mistakes:
Arizona:
26.562500 43.750000 40.625000 1 5 6 Arizona
25.000000 37.500000 53.125000 5 1 11 Wichita St
I didn't believe the numbers, given the #11 ranking. From above, I should ignore the ranking in the future, because it's pretty shitty. The problem is that my numbers suggest that Wichita State is the best team in the entire thing, which doesn't seem like it's right.
West Virginia:
28.125000 21.875000 1.562500 2 6 3 West Virginia
34.375000 39.062500 45.312500 2 6 14 SF Austin
Ditto. My numbers predict that SF Austin is the second best team. I guess if either of them come out winning, I can say that I predicted it, and then tossed it in the trash.
Baylor:
17.187500 23.437500 20.312500 3 3 5 Baylor
25.000000 18.750000 7.812500 3 3 12 Yale
No clue, but it sounds like everyone was surprised by this one.
Purdue:
29.687500 14.062500 -3.125000 4 3 5 Purdue
37.500000 -7.812500 -3.125000 4 3 12 Ark Little Rock
My numbers say they both suck, so I went with last year's numbers to break the tie. I could have added in the 2014 values, but this was a #12 ranking, and I didn't believe those.
Dayton:
28.125000 26.562500 20.312500 4 7 7 Dayton
9.375000 7.812500 34.375000 4 7 10 Syracuse
This one I should have gotten right. I folded the two previous years in, and that said that I should trust consistency over a sudden jump. Maybe Syracuse has some new great player.
Michigan State:
35.937500 18.750000 28.125000 4 8 2 Michigan St
23.437500 3.125000 23.437500 4 8 15 MTSU
Again, this one seemed like it was a surprise to everyone. There are only three values of my ranking between these two values, so that kind of suggests they're within ~5% of each other in terms of skill. Oh well.
Link time.
- Not directly one of my topics of interest, but I saw this on arXiv/stat today.
- Animal fight.
- Dogs have their own button to open the door. You can tell that this dog is allowed in, because he has a badge.
- Ghibli movies.
- This would probably be me if there was one close enough.
- I figured this would be the best link for this story. I'm glad that a lot of my favorite writers there have moved elsewhere.
- Tennessee and North Carolina should lose this, because this is a dumb fight that shouldn't even be happening.
- On a similar topic, Kansas and Louisiana should be nationalized, because they clearly can't govern themselves.
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